Using ROI For Requirements Is A Risky Business

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We’ve talked repeatedly about using ROI to drive prioritization of requirements based upon value. ROI can be used as the basis for prioritization for all decision making.

If we fail to take risk into account, our calculations will certainly be wrong, and we may make a poor decision. When we talk about accounting for risk in this context, we mean that we are accounting for the unlikely, undesired, or unintentional outcomes. We use the term expected value to refer to the risk adjusted approximation of the outcome. In financial circles, this is also called discounting.

The most common mistake people make when calculating ROI is failing to take into account the expected value of the return or the expected value of the cost of a project.

Definition of Expected Value

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Understanding the expected value of a possible future event allows us to make mathematically sound decisions. We can decide if we want to make an investment. We can assign a reasonable price for our services. We can prioritize requirements. Expected value is a calculation that should be used when calculating ROI.

Definition of ROI – Return on Investment

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We talk about ROI all the time – what is it, in layman’s terms? ROI is the acronym for return on investment. Another way to think of it is “How much profit will we make if we invest in this project?” Profit is revenue minus costs. Technically, the question should […]